Strategic decisions these days are all about taking calculated risks based on good data. And that is the tough part. The good data. Indeed, we see firms like Gartner and Forrester growing steadily, and quoted widely by firms who want to strengthen the credibility in their message. In general this is a good thing. There is no question in my mind that both Gartner and Forrester produce high quality and professional research. And there is a lot of value in the focus and frameworks that they provide. But, it is still quite important to judge how the data is put together, before accepting the forecast and conclusions.
From my own experience, I had once the led product marketing thrust for an optical performance monitor for the telecom industry. Over the course of 2 years, I had introduced the module to every major switching equipment manufacturer in the telecom industry. But, as you may recall, the telecom industry went into quite a collapse in the period 2001-2002. At that point in time, there was incredible amount forecast scrutiny. Since I was looking after a product that had a bright future, the scrutiny was even greater. And with this scrutiny came the data that had been provided by a market research firm who was specializing in the telecom industry. The executive team presented the industry forecast data and was wondering about the disparity with my own figures. When I looked at the data, I found it very interesting. The market segmentation was completely consistent with my own assessment. But the forecasted quantities differed somewhat significantly. I came to the conclusion that clearly we talked to the same customers but filled in the blanks differently, in order to arrive at the forecast. Unfortunately I turned out to be correct, and the growth was slowing down at a rapid pace.
You need a fortune teller to predict the future. Since the answer to your questions is not in the back of the book, the fortune teller needs to have excellent skills in interpolation and extrapolation. Peter Drucker is often quoted as saying that no-one can predict the future. The best that you can do, is identify patterns of things that have already occurred. But where things are going in terms of both direction and speed is a tough one to get right. You need to get close enough to the field of study; you have to hone your skills of perception and intuition; and you still need to have a manner in which you can stay objective. And that is the real tough part. Picking the right dots and connecting them the right way.
To grow as a company, you need to make strategic bets of the future. To do this without losing the farm means you need to establish a systematic process by which you can gather and assess different sources of information. Customers, suppliers and competitors are all contributors to your knowledge base. And so are research firms and consultants who can bring an outside perspective to your process. Blending it all will identify strategic choices, while reducing risk. But remember, it will never be a clear cut answer and it is not in the back of the book.